The Dollar Decline

Alasdair Macleod writes the blog FinanceAndEconomics.Org. His research aims to explain the relationship between the dollar and gold, and to warn investors about the biggest threats to their wealth from macro-economic events.

Besides what the Fed is doing by printing money, there is another big threat to the dollar, said Alasdair. Countries in Asia are banding together in order to rid themselves of using the dollar in international trade.

He also warned that credible allegation of misconduct at the London bullion exchange could accelerate the trend of Shanghai becoming the world’s trading hub for gold.

“There is a thing called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an agreement principally between China and Russia, whereby they tie up the whole of Asia as their backyard. Other members are the countries north of Tibet, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and so on. In or soon after September, four new members will join – India, Pakistan, Iran, and Mongolia. That’s almost half the world’s population. The objective of the SCO is basically to settle international trades between these countries without using the dollar. I’m not saying they will necessarily achieve that, but that’s what they want to do. They don’t want to see trade settlements reflected in bank accounts in New York.

“It’s not just members of the SCO, either, that could eschew the dollar. The Middle East, for example, now principally sends exports to China and India, so there’s no pressing reason to use the dollar there.

“You can see that, if they succeed, the whole Asian continent, at some point in the future, will be off the dollar. They’ll use their own currencies, gold, or something else. That’s a very big change, and I don’t think people fully appreciate what that means for the dollar.

“Apart from everything the Fed is doing, there’s an awful lot of dollars held in foreign corporate accounts, principally because they’re required for trade. If the world stopped using the dollar, then those dollars will need to find their way back home.

“What that’s likely to do for the dollar relative to other currencies, I don’t know, but I do think it’s likely to affect the relationship between the dollar and gold.

“While the value of the dollar depends on confidence, gold is different, because gold is accepted everywhere. They might no longer accept dollars in some parts of the world – just like they wouldn’t accept my British Pounds in California – but they’ll accept gold. In Asia, that’s particularly true. People might place a different value on gold depending on the geographic region, but gold is more or less accepted as a form of payment anywhere.”

What do you make of allegations of manipulation within the London Bullion Market?

“It’s an interesting question. The problem with the London Bullion Market is that it’s an over-the-counter market, which means people are free to behave as they like in terms of interacting with the market. That’s not to say people automatically behave dishonestly, but there’s no way to disprove an allegation that someone is behaving dishonestly, and that’s very bad.

“In the 1980s’, during the ‘big bang,’ when they decided to regulate certain types of investments in London, stocks, bonds, futures, and options were all designated as regulated investments. Physical bullion, however, was not considered a regulated investment. You could trade these without regulatory supervision, any way you liked.

“Today, in the LBMA over-the-counter market, nobody knows what’s going on. We have a fix twice a day, which is fairly opaque – you don’t see how it’s carried out. So there is reason to doubt the integrity of the London market, and that’s not good for London. It especially isn’t good for London when other bullion markets have now evolved, such as the physical market in China, which is doing a very large amount of business and is transparent. You can see turnover, and you can see the ten largest traders in each commodity – whether it’s gold, silver, or platinum, for instance. It’s all out there.

“So you can see what goes on in those markets, but you can’t see that in London. It’s even been suggested, based on mathematical analysis of the bullion market, that the London gold fixing process is rigged about 10 to 30 percent of the time. That’s quite an indictment.

“The regulators in London have been told by the politicians to clean up the gold market. I would really be surprised if they don’t institute some major changes. I doubt they’d make it a regulated market, but I can see that they would put pressure on the member banks – which they do regulate. I think they will try to make the London bullion market a lot more transparent. I think the members might scream and kick against it, but there really is no other way.

“If it doesn’t, we’re not going to retain the business that places like China, Dubai, and Singapore want to develop. I’d say that changing the fix is the first step to a long road of reform that London needs to undertake.

“So much gold has already gone from Western vaults to the Far East – China, India – and the Middle East going back to the 1970s’. We probably don’t understand that this is one of the greatest wealth transfers in history. Relative to the amount of fiat currency in circulation, gold is probably as cheap as it was in 2000 or 2001 – incredibly cheap.”

- Henry Bonner

We all have the same 24 hours in a day. None of us can steal a minute here or there to get extra time. We all get the same 24 hours, the same 1440 minutes, and the same 86,400 seconds in a day.

Related: Why You Should Create A Weekly Planning Process

In spite of that, many of us fret over time. We complain about the lack of time, and there are many who have written about time. “Time is money,” is a famous adage. Motivational speaker, Michael Altshuler, has said, “The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.”

The fact is, like it or not, we are all time managers, and the time we manage—or fail to manage—is ours and ours alone. I hear my clients complain frequently about never having enough time to do what they need to do. They have a never-ending list of tasks that never seem to get completed because they don’t have “time.” And while they fret about it, their level of stress mounts.

What’s the solution? Perhaps we need to take heed of what Michael Altshuler says: “You are the pilot of your time.” You are, in fact, the only person who can decide how to spend your time. If time management is stressing you out, here are five time management secrets to becoming less stressed if not completely stress-free.

When you need more money, you take a look at your financial budget, right? You figure out where the money is going, and then you figure out how to cut back on some things so you will have more money to spend on other things. Use this same strategy with time.

Create a time budget. Make a list of all the things you spend time doing in a day. Don’t forget to include things like updating your Facebook status, posting on Twitter, pinning on Pinterest, networking on LinkedIn, and talking on the phone. You get the idea.

Track your time for a few days in a time journal and be honest with yourself. Are you going down the Facebook rabbit hole for too long each day? It is way easy to do. Limit yourself to a specific amount of time every day for social media. If something critical happens to one of your friends or a member of your family, you will get a call… you won’t need to learn it on Facebook.

I don’t know about you, but I get an inordinate amount of junk e-mail. It’s worse than the paper junk mail because I know to throw that stuff away. But somehow, an e-mail carries with it a greater sense of importance and urgency. I hate having unopened e-mail in my in-box. Not that I ever read it all… but I will check to make sure I don’t need to read it, and then I check it as “read.” Periodically, I get tough and start unsubscribing from e-mail suppliers that are bad about sending me junk.

If that strategy doesn’t work for you, create folders and place your less urgent messages in the folders for later. Don’t let e-mail become your time drain, however. It’s far too easy to do. You can start checking e-mail, and suddenly an hour has slipped away and you haven’t gotten started on the list of things you want to accomplish for the day.

Having a plan for what you want to accomplish each day is important. Will everything go the way you planned? Probably not. So plan, but be flexible. It is a good idea to approach each day with a sense of purpose. Set goals for getting one, two or three specific things accomplished each day. As you accomplish each thing, give yourself a little cheer or a silent pat on the back. If you are a list maker, check it off your list, but don’t get compulsive about it. If you have to defer one of the things on your list until tomorrow because something more urgent came up today, that’s okay. You can handle that. There is always tomorrow.

I know, I know, you are thinking “Whaaat? Limit myself to only ONE thing at a time when I could multi-task!?!” The answer is “YES!” The truth is you are not good at multi-tasking even though you may think you are. You can only do one thing at a time if you hope to do it well. You will feel less stressed; you will be far more efficient, and you will have accomplished a lot more in less time if you focus on just one thing at a time. Trust me on this.

Stay away from the office drama kings and queens…you know the ones I mean… they are always ready to dish on the co-worker down the hall. They know the latest on why the boss has been called to headquarters. They are always “in the know” and they are always only too willing and ready to fill you in. The trouble with these individuals is that they will also “share” information with others about you and your personal business if you are foolish enough to divulge things that they don’t need to know. If you need a confidant, find someone outside the office and steer clear of the people who generate upset around the office. They are a time drain for sure.

The main thing to remember about time management is what I offered at the beginning of this article. We all have the same amount of time. Some people seem to accomplish more with their time than others, but they didn’t find an extra hour somewhere or build in an extra couple of weeks to get ahead of the rest of us. We all have the same 24 hours in a day and the same 365 days a year. You may feel like time is slipping away from you, but the fact is you ARE the pilot of your time, and you CAN take control of it… starting right now.

Gold sales are expected to rise by 15 per cent to 20 per cent this festive season from year-ago levels, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, director of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.

Next month Indians will celebrate Dhanteras, associated with Lakshmi - the goddess of wealth, when buying gold is considered auspicious, followed by the festival of lights Diwali and then the wedding season that will extend into early next year.

But the stronger demand could squeeze supplies in the domestic market and push up local prices.

"In the short-term, gold prices are expected to rise to Rs. 28,500 per 10 grams," said Kothari.

Indian gold premiums to the global benchmark are also expected to jump to about $12-$15 an ounce, from the current $7-$10 an ounce, industry officials said.

Total 2014 imports are, however, likely to fall to about 700-750 tonnes from 900 tonnes a year ago because of thin arrivals earlier this year, said Mr Kothari, helping to keep a lid on the country's current account deficit.

Last year, a ballooning deficit prompted India to put curbs on gold imports, including a 10 per cent duty. While the government has allowed private jewellery exporters to import again, it is reluctant to lower the duty.

Jewellery forms a big part of Indian gold demand, accounting for about 75 per cent of the total in the second quarter, World Gold Council data showed. India's investment demand for gold slumped 67 per cent on year in the June quarter.

"The likely rise in demand is not expected to hurt the country's deficit because gold imports are under control and international prices are also lower," said Mr Kothari.